Do I believe in UFOs?
Do I believe there are unidentified flying objects in the sky - yes.
Do I 'believe' they are the craft of alien civilizations come visiting?
Well...How likely is that?
The universe is a big place. Earth a tiny spec in a massive sea of nothingness.
Just statistically - the odds of aliens coming to this planet - pretty slim.
If you are asking is the universe teeming with intelligent life? - then the answer is - almost certainly. If you are asking if this intelligent life will climb into spacecraft capable of flying distances within our galaxy, and come pay us a visit? - then the answer is almost certainly no. In fact the chances of that happening are almost non-existent. But not for the reasons one may think.
The answer to this I think is way cooler than alien craft being our UFO's - and much more likely.
Technological growth is exponential. What seems to be linear growth for many, many years suddenly begins to curve upwards approaching infinite growth over very small periods of time. The processing power of computers - one example.
The invention of the computer is inevitable with any intelligence capable of spaceflight and/or communication using electromagnetic radiation - radio. The growth of its capabilities - exponential. Within 100-200 years of the invention of the first computer - and before any attempts at intergalactic travel - the computer will evolve into a super computer and greater than creator artificial intelligence will evolve. AI growth is itself exponential and it will evolve into super intelligence in very short order. The creation of an intelligence millions, if not billions of times greater than its creator, is then the fate of all intelligent species capable of spaceflight - provided they don't destroy themselves first.
A billion order greater intelligence would be indistinguishable from god, and would provide avenues of existence outside the biologic, perhaps outside of this universe.
When this happens, and it will happen, intelligence won't need spacecraft.
Do I believe there are unidentified flying objects in the sky - yes.
Do I 'believe' they are the craft of alien civilizations come visiting?
Well...How likely is that?
The universe is a big place. Earth a tiny spec in a massive sea of nothingness.
Just statistically - the odds of aliens coming to this planet - pretty slim.
If you are asking is the universe teeming with intelligent life? - then the answer is - almost certainly. If you are asking if this intelligent life will climb into spacecraft capable of flying distances within our galaxy, and come pay us a visit? - then the answer is almost certainly no. In fact the chances of that happening are almost non-existent. But not for the reasons one may think.
The answer to this I think is way cooler than alien craft being our UFO's - and much more likely.
Technological growth is exponential. What seems to be linear growth for many, many years suddenly begins to curve upwards approaching infinite growth over very small periods of time. The processing power of computers - one example.
The invention of the computer is inevitable with any intelligence capable of spaceflight and/or communication using electromagnetic radiation - radio. The growth of its capabilities - exponential. Within 100-200 years of the invention of the first computer - and before any attempts at intergalactic travel - the computer will evolve into a super computer and greater than creator artificial intelligence will evolve. AI growth is itself exponential and it will evolve into super intelligence in very short order. The creation of an intelligence millions, if not billions of times greater than its creator, is then the fate of all intelligent species capable of spaceflight - provided they don't destroy themselves first.
A billion order greater intelligence would be indistinguishable from god, and would provide avenues of existence outside the biologic, perhaps outside of this universe.
When this happens, and it will happen, intelligence won't need spacecraft.
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