Hope In the Silence

In the first moments of our universe (relative to its age), hydrogen and helium condensed out of the pure energy of the big bang, coalesced into massive clouds of gas, and formed stars. Under the great pressure found within stars, this hydrogen and helium began to undergo nuclear fusion producing energy, light, helium, carbon, nitrogen, and oxygen. Larger stars went on to form iron and nickel. And even heavier elements were formed in supermassive stellar explosions. This occurred throughout the entire universe and continues even today - everywhere. 

And so stars everywhere produce the building blocks of life - the same building blocks that resulted in life's formation here  on earth - oxygen, carbon, water, iron, nitrogen, etc.

There are 200 billion stars in our galaxy, and at least that many planets. There are 1.2 trillion galaxies in the observable universe, each with its 200 billion planets. Since star formation has occurred throughout all of the universe in the same way, it becomes clear that the conditions and building blocks necessary for life as we know it to form, are to be found everywhere. Add in sufficient time - say 13.8 billion years  - the age of our universe - and the odds overwhelming favor that life has evolved elsewhere. In fact given the size of our universe, and its age, it is near certain intelligent life capable of significant technological advancement, while much more rare, has also had the time and conditions necessary to have evolved elsewhere. 

Once a biologic intelligence becomes advanced enough to invent a device to modulate electromagnetic radiation in order to communicate (radio), its first electronic computers are probably no more than a few decades away. From first electronic computers to artificial general intelligence greater than its creators (super AGI) probably takes no more than 200 years, based on our own experience.  

If true, then alien non-biologic super-intelligence has had more than enough time to have been created, spread out from its origins, and become ubiquitous in our galaxy. Resistant to vacuum, radiation, and unbothered by the time and distances required for interstellar travel, non-biologic alien super intelligence is orders of magnitudes more likely to survive and become ubiquitous throughout the galaxy, than its biologic creators. Once underway this would take no more than one million years. Parts of our galaxy are 13.3 billion years old. 

As alien super AGI expands across the galaxy it will need to harvest energy and resource. No matter how intelligent these sentiment beings become, the process of accruing sustenance is unlikely to ever become so subtle that we would not notice. So, why have we not noticed? We've looked.

So, where is everybody? This is one of the greatest and important mysteries humans have ever been tasked with solving. Given the near certainty that artificial intelligence has had the opportunity to have become ubiquitous in our galaxy, why can't we find them? Finding the answer(s) to that may reveal something as to the fate of all intelligent species, even our own. 

Ah, but this cannot be the first time an intelligence has faced this problem - in all of time, everywhere? Someone else, at or near our level of development, has had to have asked before - where is everybody? 

If the answer was bad - say all advanced intelligence destroys itself - then at least one intelligence would have discovered this, used it as inspiration, altered course, survived, and have become ubiquitous throughout the galaxy, and therefore noticeable. 

But if the answer was good - say they all leave this universe, this reality, for greener pastures - then there is great hope for humankind's ASI. And if we are careful in designing our ASI, very, very, careful indeed, then there is great hope for humankind as well.