Sunday, July 19, 2020

To Negotiate With a Virus

We still haven't learned we cant negotiate with a virus. It marches on regardless of economic or political wishful thinking. 145,000 deaths so far and 60,000-75,000 new cases a day.

As things are now the plan seems to be in essence to develop herd immunity while waiting for a vaccine. Currently we are at about 7% infected. Herd immunity requires 50-60% of the population be infected. At 70,000 new cases a day that will require over a year to reach. 

In the meantime people will die unnecessarily and our economy will suffer horribly.

We are beginning to see a spike in daily deaths from the spike in cases that began a month ago. 1200 died today, July 22, 2020 - a death every 72 seconds - and it’s rising. 

It becomes clear we are going to need to completely shutdown again - this time to include aitravel and hotels. If we don't this is going to go on for at least another year at the cost of 400,000 to 1,000,000 lives and the development of a deep and lasting depression. Half measures will not work. 

Given society’s mobility we must act nationally, not just locally. We need to shut down nationally for 2-3 months right now and then reopen with a real plan. Do that and we can bring this under control with less death and overall economic damage. Do this and we could bring the virus under control by September and have the economy open, exactly as most of the wealthy countries worldwide have been able to do, and do it just in time for the election. 

Unfortunately that is unlikely to happen under President Trump, or in a society that asks first - what about me? how does this effect me?, and finds death by disease, weak. And so the price of ridding ourselves of this virus is going to be the death by a thousand cuts.  The unnecessary deaths of at least a half a million lives, and long lasting, economic devastation. 

Saturday, July 18, 2020

One With the Sea

The sextant was invented in 1730. The marine chronometer in 1761. Combined, what we refer to as celestial navigation, began. Along with the compass, used by mariners since at least the first century blue water navigation became possible. Or so goes the myth.

Celestial navigation did not begin in the 18th century anymore than the Americas were discovered by Columbus. Reliable blue water navigation employing celestial navigation, began around 1300 BC by the Lapita in the south Pacific and was refined by the Polynesians. Compared to their techniques, western, machinery dependent, navigation is almost as soulless as GPS.

The Polynesians used the positions of rising and setting sun and stars, the direction of seasonal winds and swell, the air and sea interference patterns created by land and currents, the migration patterns of birds, weather patterns, water color and smell, to accurately navigate thousands of miles of unchartered sea and return safely to their homes. The techniques were passed down in song and demanded incredible memory and a keenness for nature’s subtleties. These sailors were truly one with their oceans in a way I can only dream of.

Pictured here is a map drawn from memory of most of the south Pacific by the Polynesian navigator Tupaia for Captain Cook in 1769. Cook was not impressed - too busy shining his sextant I suppose.


Friday, July 17, 2020

There is Beauty and Then There is Beauty.

A beautiful young woman is truly a site to behold. Stunning, breathtaking, her beauty perhaps only eclipsed by her power. An amazing creature.
And yet gazing on her I do not wish to be young again.
I am happy with my age and only too glad to now admire from afar.

But show me a beautiful boat.
And I’ll wish I was rich.



Friday, July 10, 2020

Money, Money, Money - II

All economies are exquisitely sensitive to our modern day existential threats. Witness the near total collapse of the world-wide financial systems with the 2020 SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Corporatism and social democracies have no mechanism to address long range threats such as pandemics, global warming and/or automation and the loss of jobs, and autocratic governments haven’t the will.

At the root of the problem, money. Money became obsolete the moment it interfered with the advancement of human knowledge – space travel, scientific endeavor, moral enlightenment – we just haven’t figured that out yet. Money guarantees unequal distribution of wealth, deep poverty, unnecessary human suffering and human conflict. It is an exquisitely fragile system of resource distribution and our modern day global threats expose it’s inherent weaknesses. As the world continues to get smaller and more interconnected we have absolutely no choice but to move to a world without money. This is not a utopian fantasy, it is fact. Do it or we perish as a species, of this I have little doubt. But how?

Imagine a world where automation has expanded to include the harvesting of raw materials, processing them into refined materials, shaping, constructing and then distributing everything we need to live, and it is not hard to see how we evolve past money. Overseen by artificial intelligence (AI) that is dedicated to maintaining and improving such a system, aided by mobile repair and construction units, every material need would be provided for entirely by machines, for free.

Whether we realize it or not this is the logical progression of modern day industrial automation. Since automation promises price savings there is little doubt it will continue pretty much unchecked for the foreseeable future. But as it progresses more and jobs will be lost and money driven economies will eventually collapse. If no one is working, who is paying? It would be better to admit the inevitability of this and begin to plan for it aggressively, now.  In fact we should embrace it and make complete automation a national goal much as we came together and did the impossible landing on the moon in less than a decade.

As we displace workers with machines, we must retrain them in some facet of the automation industry, while paying them their old wages. As the next wave of workers then lose their jobs to automation, do the same. In fact make complete automation within 20 years our focused national mission. Create a national automation administration - NAA - in order to bring resources and expertise together with the common mission  of complete automation and freedom from material constraint for all mankind. Expedite automation in order to transition as painlessly as possible away from money to this more utopian life so as not to destroy societies so focused on money. At some point in this process much of the population will be employed in the automation industry at which point development continued but not brought on line until the system is completely ready to come online. Once completely in place - a literal throwing of the switch occurs - at which time - in one moment - money becomes obsolete, wages no longer needed, and mankind evolves.

Impossible? What will people do all day? Well, imagine a SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in such a world. Self-isolate while goods and services continue without a hitch. Patients cared for in their homes with the latest in medical technology and resource instead of in highly resistant microbe factories that we call hospitals – cost no longer a factor. Imagine a world devoid of poverty, famine, starvation, and much of the reasons for human conflict.  Imagine what the people of this future studying our times will say – 'they spent their entire lives going to a job they hated, so that they could eat? No job, no money, no eating? They focused their entire lives on materialism and killed each other by the millions over resources and riches. Absolute barbarism!'

As the world continues to get smaller and more interconnected, as automation progresses in our search for ever more wealth, we simply must move to a world without money. Either societies collapse and millions die or we evolve. This is not a utopian fantasy, it is fact. Do it or we perish.

Thursday, July 2, 2020

Moments

Ever tire of the sun rising in the east?
I do.
Just once why cant it rise in the west?
Or not rise at all? Or never set?
Just once in five billion years?

Ever tire of useless social construct?
I do.
“Success” “Power” “Prestige” “Money” rings and perfect weddings. Over and over and over again. And then you die.

Ever wonder how many times your life has been lived in a million years of history? The great loves, the desires, the hopes, the dreams, the self-importance and immediacy of each and every generation amongst thousands upon thousands of generations.

And then they died, forgotten. Did they ever even exist?

As you will only too soon die, to be utterly forgotten.
Nothing new.
Nothing new.

Save:

A glimmer of sunlight.
Waves on rocks. 
A breath.
The smell and warmth of summer grass.
Distant bird call.
Far away laughter.

Moments.



Wednesday, June 24, 2020

Death of America

58,318 US soldiers died in all of Vietnam. A decade long war. Now imagine a war where 800 - 1,000 US soldiers were dying every day, day after day, month after grueling month - and most of those deaths were avoidable. 125,000 dead in just five months.

Now know this is the ongoing death toll from the coronavirus in the US today. And despite this, Trump declares victory, governors reopen economies, and the media refuses to put faces to the dead. After all to die in war is glorious. To die of an infectious disease - weak. And besides unbridled consumerism must continue at all cost. 

What is so tragic is that most of the rest of the world has managed to contain the virus. The US hasn't’ the will or the humanity to do so. From here on out most of the deaths in this country from the virus will have been avoidable save our greed, selfishness, and weakness of will. 


Tuesday, June 16, 2020

A Tradition Very Much Alive Today

From ancient Greece, where physicians believed disease resulted from gods wreaking havoc on humans in acts of vengeance, to the more body orientated approach of Hippocrates and Galen, to our modern day, one thing has remained true. Physicians have had a very long tradition of getting it so spectacularly wrong as to cause needless suffering and death while refusing to believe itFrequently wrong, rarely in doubt, has been the mainstay of medicine for centuries. Ignoring their mistakes, an art form.

Medical historians and physicians imagine medical history as a long triumphant arc of steady progress resulting from the discoveries of genius while completely ignoring thousands of years of harm at the hands of average physicians practitioners. So complete is the propaganda, that medical students today swear to uphold the utter quackery of Hippocrates while reciting the Hippocratic oath – where insuring proper payment to teachers is number one on the list of things to do, followed by homage to the gods, and a promise never to perform abortions.

From blood-letting, to blistering, to the inhalation of noxious gases in order to sweat out the Pox (and kill people by the thousands) – physicians have had, over thousands of years, a long unwavering tradition of sureness even while being completely and utterly wrong. Relentlessly so. And whereas the rare genius is responsible for medicine’s advancements it wasn’t until modern times, when the scientific method finally forced its way into medicine around 1900, that every day clinical medicine changed in meaningful ways. Even today we frequently do not learn from past mistakes, we instead choose to rewrite history and prop up prestige – grand and glorious.

In my experience this continues today in critical care medicine. My exposure to it started in 1991 as a trainee when on a cold and rainy November night two grand papers were published in the bible of internal medicine – The New England Journal. Tight glycemic control in the ICU and early goal directed therapy (EGT) in septic shock. Both studies were small, single center studies, both poorly done – and as time would finally tell us, both were utter nonsense.  But oh my, what a fuss they caused. 

Entire careers were made on implementing tight glucose control only for us to learn a decade later that we were probably killing 1 in 37 patients unnecessarily with it. An entire campaign was begun in response to EGT – the Surviving Sepsis Campaign – to insure that the first six hours of treatment was adhered to according to the EGT study – despite being pretty much on your on after that. It was utter folly. We learned very early that early antibiotics and infection source control were the only interventions in sepsis found to make a difference. Despite this we had to tolerate ridiculous, non-physiologic hemodynamic ‘guidelines’ that were more like commandments from the Mount than guidelines, despite being first extracted from someone’s behind and completely made up. Central venous pressure – one size fits all. Aggressive fluid resuscitation in EVERYONE based on the unproven assumption that sepsis patients always present hypovolemic. Whereas it is true vascular permeability is increased in sepsis, experts have completely ignored the lymphatic’s ability to dramatically increase fluid return to the central veins in such circumstances. And so sepsis representing, per se, a hypovolemic state has become gospel despite being untrue, as was blood-letting for thousands of years I suppose. 

But after more than a decade of physicians and physiologists pointing out how un-physiologic the SSC resuscitation recommendations were, they decided to take it out of realm of physiology and reduce recommendations to commands. You will give 30ml/kg IVF to every septic shock patient, and you will follow lactate. Don’t do that in New York and face criminal charges. No attempt was made to explain the cardiovascular physiologic effects, or reasons, just do it. And no attempt to even explain where the recommendations came from since there is no evidence, none, that this is the right amount of fluid to give to anyone for any reason, or that following lactate improves outcome. But we all know sepsis causes hypovolemia on presentation so this seems reasonable. Except we do not know that. Separate from insensible and GI losses we have no idea if early sepsis actually represents a hypovolemic state. We do know that more than 60% of patients with sepsis presenting to the ED are not fluid responsive. We do know that most do not have peripheral or pulmonary edema prior to resuscitation - begging the question where does all that extravasated fluid go? And finally and most importantly, we do know one size does not fit all – ever– in medicine, underlying the absurdity of such recommendations. 

I could go on. But here is the point. Did we learn anything from our tight glycemic control experience despite probably causing excess death? No, we did not. Most centers just choose another glucose target, completely ignoring the complex metabolic and endocrine effects of insulin or the harm it may be doing, regardless of hypoglycemia. Did we learn anything from EGTApparently nothing except three separate studies have proven it a miserable failure. And instead of learning the lessons from that experience the SSC just made up a whole new set of guidelines and on and on we go. 

Bloodletting started in ancient Greece and continued into the 20thcentury. It obviously did not work, and usually harmed. But physicians refused to learn from their mistakes for thousands of years, having refused to do so since the beginning. How many died and suffered unnecessarily as a result? A long and dangerous tradition – sureness in the face of ignorance. 

A tradition very much alive today.