We are not alone

The Drake equation was developed by Frank Drake in 1961 to estimate the number of communicating civilizations in our galaxy. That's right - ET's. Drake thought that once an alien civilization learns to communicate in ways we can detect across space they would continue to do so over an average of 10,000 years until they went the way of ancient Rome. Using this number he estimated there were currently 10,000 communicating civilizations in our galaxy. 10,000 civilizations amongst 200 billion stars in our galaxy - the proverbial needle in the haystack. It could take a very ,very long time before we detect anything, if ever.

But Drake may have grossly underestimated. Technological growth is not linear - as it intuitively appears to be, and as Drake thought of it - it is exponential. Once civilizations reach the capability to communicate using electromagnetic radiation - light, radio, television, etc - ways we recognize today - their technological growth would be about to experience massive expansion. Shortly after radio would come computers. Shortly after that artificial intelligence. Shortly after that - massive growth of intelligence and capability. We ourselves are on the verge of this massive expansion. We will experience intelligence millions, if not billions of times our current level within the next 100 years. We wouldn't be able to recognize our future selves or detect the ways we will communicate using today's technologies. From the onset of radio to unrecognizable communication in less than 200 years.

Civilizations then more likely communicate in a way we can recognize today not over 10,000 years but more like 100-200 years. The solution to the Drake equation would then be 100-200 civilizations not the 10,000 he solved for. 200 alien civilizations in a 200 billion star galaxy would make for a very lonely universe indeed.

But does this mean there really are only 200 advanced civilizations in all of the galaxy? We started this line of reasoning saying Drake grossly underestimated. Again, if we consider the exponential growth of intelligence and technology things change dramatically. Drake believed that intelligent life could only evolve on planets. Part of his equation then depends on an estimate of the number of life sustaining planets in the galaxy. But exponential technological and intellectual growth would guarantee massive expansion of intelligent life beyond planets. Consider this and his equation then solves in the millions - perhaps billions.

Billions? We've been looking for intelligent signals from space for fifty years and found nothing. But we've been looking for civilizations close to our own level of intellectual and technological development - the 200 in 200 billion after all. The silence we are experiencing in our search for alien intelligence then more likely a reflection of our crude intellectual and technological beginnings than an indication of lack of intelligent life in our universe. Devise ways of communicating with a billion fold greater intelligence - and the sky should light up.
www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/origins/drak-flash.html

A Beginning Towards World Peace II

The solution to terrorism will ultimately not be with bullets or bombs. Terrorists capable of mass murder are by and large the product of their environments. They tend to come from poor, oppressed peoples who understand the limitations of their means and opportunities and know when they are being denied. It is an unsustainable state of affairs that can only result in suffering and the steady production of hate filled twisted souls. Those of us with means have the capability to bring hope and opportunity to all people – everywhere - and thus have an obligation to help. It may take generations but it is ultimately the only solution. We simply can't deny or control or kill our way to a more stable world. We have no choice but to share knowledge and opportunity with all people, everywhere. There's a very real price to pay if we don't.

The Silence is Deafening

The Drake equation was developed by Frank Drake in 1961 to estimate the number of communicating civilizations in our galaxy
N = N* fp ne fl fi fc fL

N = the number of communicating civilizations in the galaxy.
N* = number of stars in our galaxy
fp = fraction of stars with planets
ne = number planets per star able to sustain life
fl = fraction of ne planets where life evolves
fi = fraction of those planets where intelligent life evolves
fc = fraction of fi that communicate
fL = the fraction of the planet's life during which the communicating civilizations survives

He solved it and got 10,000. 10,000 is a pretty small number amongst 200 billion stars in our galaxy. And so searching for ET by listening for intelligence in electromagnetic energy such as radio could take awhile. But what Drake did not consider was that technological growth is exponential not linear - surely civilizations would learn relatively quickly how to build artificial worlds even if they could not expand outward at greater than light speed. Given the multibillion year age of our galaxy even conservative estimates would thus solve the equation in the hundreds of thousands if not millions of civilizations range. The sky should be screaming at us - the silence to date, stunning. Where is everybody?

Wake up Bubba - Youre Being Screwed

Now its 90,000 barrels a day pouring into the Gulf of Mexico - and it has been 90,000 barrels a day since the beginning. It took BP and the media two weeks to get the figure up as high as 5000 a day after playing it down and yet the estimates presented in testimony in congress yesterday are based on weeks old BP video - the bastards have known all along and lied about it. 90,000 barrels a day is 2.8 million gallons a day. The entire Exxon Valdez disaster was 10.5 million gallons. We're currently at 100 million gallons and counting. It is a slowly, constantly evolving nightmare and it ain't going away - its going to damage the environment of the entire western hemisphere if not the world before its over. And my god, they are still lying to us.

De-regulation, greed, corporatism, and corruption have nearly destroyed the world's economy and now in a single stroke much of the western hemisphere's environment. I'm dam tired of it.

Rand Paul the Jerk

Rand Paul, Kentucky's Republican Senate nominee, says Obama's criticism of how BP has handled the oil spill is un-American. Being tough on and holding BRITISH petroleum accountable for the worst environmental disaster in history is somehow un-American. BP is a multinational corporation with allegiance to no one country. Their recklessness and lies immediately following this disaster have clearly made it much worse than it already was - and they are still lying. They have a long documented history of lying about safety and the severity of the environmental impact of previous disasters. Their handling of this disaster will reveal itself to involve criminal negligence. They have impeded the capping and the clean up effort by having misrepresented the severity of leak - not just in the first few days but for weeks after-wards. When the full extent of this disaster is finally is realized - watch this rat Paul squeak and squeal in his enthusiastic indictment of BP. Un-American? Hell BP is un-World. What timing - what a jerk.

Tea Party

Sort of hard to tell where this Tea Party is heading. Clearly the media is inflating its impact and importance - but will that in the end give it time enough to evolve from its unfocused sort of kooky, racist, and confused beginnings into something tangible, rationale and organized? - seems to be the million dollar question. I'm pretty disgusted with Washington myself. Who knows, if this movement changes enough to qualify it space in the sane universe it may just begin to represent a movement for real change many could get behind - after all part of the reason Obama was elected was for his promises of real change in Washington. We'll know if its morphed and matured into something that could last and is real when Sarah Palin and far right ideologues lose interest in exploiting it. Stay tuned.

A symptom of modern times

These tea-baggers I am intimately acquainted with. My father is THE quintessential tea-bagger – it is his picture you will find next to the definition in the dictionary. Frightened, confused, paranoid and angry as regards modern times it is not completely clear even to him why he reacts so strongly or feels the way he does about these ever changing times. Gone are the black and white days of good guy-bad guy – clear lines of conflict against an enemy you could see. Gone are the days of Walter Cronkite – a newsman you could trust to provide truthful information about a government you could place reasonable trust in. Gone is the need or even possibility of true nationalism – where things made in American were really made in America - and it was us against the world. Gone are the days that despite all the shenanigans and political game playing – the government worked – the system worked - there was an honest dialogue and a concern to do the right thing in congress across party lines – not one corporate interest chasing another or one extreme ideology dominating a dozen other extreme ideologies. Oh how confusing these modern times have become – and on top of it all now throw an Afro-American into the role of President of the United States? This is an in your face reminder to these people as to just how confusing and frightening it has all become. It isn’t just racism, it is also that  it goes against all they’ve ever known. A black man in the white house? Sadly you have pieces of garbage like Sarah Palin willing to exploit these fears and confusion – seemingly helping to unite them and give them direction and purpose while in fact all she’s really doing is cashing in. The movement rings true in so many hearts but it is unfocused – really more of an emotional reaction than an organized political force – and will not last. But let’s just not dismiss them as racists or hate mongers or malcontents. In fact at the center of all their confusion lies an angst that many of us are feeling towards our government and the state of world affairs in general. Tea-baggers are a symptom of a dangerously broken government and media in a scary, scary time in history.

A beginning towards world peace

We are as good as the best amoung us. We are as bad as the worst. The worst tend to be ignorant and angry - conditions that can be repaired over a generation or two with knowledge and opportunity. The best, having the means to 'deliver' the worst, have a responsibility therefore to help them. And it is ultimately in their interests to do so. The worst always have at least some understanding of the limitations of their means and opportunities and know when they are being denied. This is an unsustainable state of affairs that can only end badly. We simply can't deny or control or kill our way to a more stable world. We have no choice but to share knowledge and opportunity with all people, everywhere.

No Drama Obama

No drama Obama. The white house under this President is, proudly, now a drama free zone. Steady, sober, practical, rational. Ah yes, now this is the stuff of good responsible governance. Solid, middle of the road, and completely uninspired. For isn't true inspiration one of the purest forms of drama there is? During the campaign what Obama represented to so many was change - real change. We wanted it so badly we were ready to elect an Afro-American President years before we otherwise would have. We sense the shit hitting the fan - I mean really hitting the fan - precisely at a time when corporate influence, big money, and extremes of ideology has disrupted checks and balances, and the very ability of our government to govern. This at a time when we face far reaching problems on a global scale that threaten our children's very existence. This is not a time for middle of the road and practical. This is the time for greatness, true inspiration, and all the drama such immense problems require. For a smart guy he just doesn't seem to get it. There is a psychopathology here influencing what is otherwise a great intellect - keeping him from greatness. He needs to allow drama into his house, needs to hear the passionate advice of inspired men and women - not just middle of the road. He needs to embrace the immense problems we face, address broken government, and get us on the direction of change and repair. He needs to allow himself drama and vision and greatness.