To Negotiate With a Virus

We still haven't learned we cant negotiate with a virus. It marches on regardless of economic or political wishful thinking. 145,000 deaths so far and 60,000-75,000 new cases a day.

As things are now the plan seems to be in essence to develop herd immunity while waiting for a vaccine. Currently we are at about 7% infected. Herd immunity requires 50-60% of the population be infected. At 70,000 new cases a day that will require over a year to reach. 

In the meantime people will die unnecessarily and our economy will suffer horribly.

We are beginning to see a spike in daily deaths from the spike in cases that began a month ago. 1200 died today, July 22, 2020 - a death every 72 seconds - and it’s rising. 

It becomes clear we are going to need to completely shutdown again - this time to include aitravel and hotels. If we don't this is going to go on for at least another year at the cost of 400,000 to 1,000,000 lives and the development of a deep and lasting depression. Half measures will not work. 

Given society’s mobility we must act nationally, not just locally. We need to shut down nationally for 2-3 months right now and then reopen with a real plan. Do that and we can bring this under control with less death and overall economic damage. Do this and we could bring the virus under control by September and have the economy open, exactly as most of the wealthy countries worldwide have been able to do, and do it just in time for the election. 

Unfortunately that is unlikely to happen under President Trump, or in a society that asks first - what about me? how does this effect me?, and finds death by disease, weak. And so the price of ridding ourselves of this virus is going to be the death by a thousand cuts.  The unnecessary deaths of at least a half a million lives, and long lasting, economic devastation.